Date: February 5, 1973

Time: 4:52 pm – 6:09 pm

Location: Oval Office

The President met with George P. Shultz, Herbert Stein, Roy L. Ash, and John D. Ehrlichman;

this recording began at an unknown time while the conversation was in progress.

Child

-Richard K. Moore [?]

Gun violence

-Press

-Race of assailant

-Impact

-Relationship

Ash

-Previous meeting

-Appropriations Committee

-George H. Mahon

-Fiscal responsibility

-Compared to President

-Deficit

-Tax increase

-Necessity

-Election

-Election promise

-Impact on policy

-Voters

US economy

-Meeting of the Quadriad

-Timing

-Budget

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-William McChesney Martin, Jr.

-Projections on inflation

-Accuracy

-Budget

-Cuts

-Phase III

-Arthur F. Burns

-International monetary solution

-Inflation

-Martin

-Arthur M. Okun

-Economics

-Social values

-Martin’s view

-Speech

-Money supply

-Rate of inflation

-Ambitious goal to lower

Manolo Sanchez entered at an unknown time after 4:52 pm.

Refreshments

-Iced tea

Agriculture

-Inflation rate

-Effect on tariff reduction

Sanchez left at an unknown time before 6:09 pm.

-Achievability

-Increase in prices

-Food

-Increase in production of wheat, con, soybeans

-Annual rate

-Farm prices

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-Retail prices

US economy

-Phase III

-Reporting

-Wage and price control

-Confusion

-Phase II

-Stock Market

-Labor

-Budget

-Cuts

-Expenditures

-Monetary supply

-Burns

-Federal Reserve

-Control

-Monetarists

-Monitoring

-Credit crunch

-Fears

-Burns

-Budget

-Treasury Department

-Shultz’s statement

-Effectiveness

-Interest

-Jawboning

-Banks

-Impact

-Prime rate

-Shultz’s statement

-Jawboning

-Effective rate

-Interest rates

-banks

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-Nervousness

-Control

-Internal Revenue Service [IRS]

Business attitudes

-1960s

-Comparison with poor, blacks

-Dependence on government

-Phase I, Phase II

-Labor battles

-Phase III

-Commitment to free enterprise

-Fear

-Vietnam settlement

-Market fluctuations

-Benefits of peace

-Short term compared to long term

-Uncertainty

-Dependence on government

-Business compared to black and poor

-Consciousness

-Realization by business

-Smaller businesses

-Government expenditures

-Effect of domestic programs

-Weaning

-Business compared to blacks and poor

-Principles

-Reaction by business

-Jobs

-Budget role

-Turnaround

-Wage and price role

-Resemblance to past policies

-Fear of downturn

-Forecast

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-Budget

-Turnaround

-Policy

-Phase III

-Concerns

-Close observers

-Confidence

-Meeting with California Chamber of Congress

-Roger [surname unknown]

-Fred Harvey [?]

-View of controls

-Need for clarification of federal rules

-Operational business people compared to financial people

-Stock market

-Interest rates

-Impact of international monetary fluctuations

-Impact of domestic economic fluctuations

-Shultz’s preferences

-Burns’s view

-Confidence

-Investment

-Stock market

-Economic downturn

-Resources

-Rate of growth

Budget

-Ehrlichman’s interview with US News and World Reports

-Henry M. (“Scoop”) Jackson

-Social programs

-The administration’s economic policy

-Full employment benefit

-Economic growth

-Government spending

-Jackson’s interview on “Issues and Answers”

-Economic worries

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-Balance

-Phase III

-Congressional approval

-Monetary policy

-“Boom-bust”

-Managing inflation

-Jackson

-Effect

-Interest rates

-Money shortages

-Phase III

-Chamber of Commerce meeting

-Number in attendance

-Brookings Institution

-American Enterprise Institute [AEI]

-Acceptance of the administration’s position

-Congress

-Budget

-Spending

-Public support

-economists

-Congressional reaction

-Newspaper coverage

-Appropriations Committee

-News magazines coverage

-Legislation

-Veto

-Sustain “nose count”

-President’s veto list

-Congressional leaders

-Phase III

Congressional relations

-Testimony

-Stein

-Joint Economic Committee

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-Ash, Shultz

-Appropriations Committee

-Amount of time

-Compared to other administrations

-Cabinet officers

Criticism of administration’s economic policy

-Shultz’s view

-Martin

-Okun

-The President’s consideration

-Stein

-Okun

-Criticism

-Meeting with Council of Economic Advisors

-Phase III

-Inflation

-Yearly comparison

-John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson administrations

-Council of Economic Advisors Chairmen

-Okun, Gardner Ackley, Walter T. Heller

-Support for Phase III

-Priorities

-Social policy

-Unidentified name

-Okun

-Martin

-Predictions on expenditures

-Accuracy

-Federal Reserve policy

-Money supply

-Burns

-Election impact

-Discount rates

-Inflation

-Tighter money

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-Interest rates

-Burns

-Dividends

-Burns

-Testimony

-Statement

-Testimony

-Predictions

-Support for Phase III

-Shultz

-European trip

-Testimony

-Impact of statement

-Meeting with the President

-Meeting with the President

-Scheduling

-Stephen B. Bull

-European situation

-Testimony

-Questions

-Edward R. G. Heath

-Assessment of world trade

-European Economic Community [EEC]

-Anthony P. L. Barber

-Hussein ibn Talal [Hussein, King of Jordan]

John T. Dunlop

-Cost of Living Council [COLC]

-Director

-Confirmation

-Reactions

-Senate

-House of Representatives

-Problems

-Legal requirements

-Donald H. Rumsfeld

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-NATO

-Swearing-in

-Comments on Phase III

-Precedent

-Recess

International economic issues

-Responses

-Marina Von N. Whitman

-Devaluation of dollar

-Industry sensitivity to dollar

-Compared to consumers

-Decisions

-trade

-Talking paper

-Unity of message

-Wilbur D. Mills

-Russell B. Long

-George Meany

-Business groups

-Meany

-Meeting in Florida

American Federation of Labor-Congress of Industrial Organzations [AFL-CIO]

-Executive Council meeting

-Shultz’s attendance

-Peter J. Brennan

-Shultz’s possible conversation with Meany

-Brennan’s attendance

-Shultz’s meeting with Brennan

-Transportation spokesman

-Brennan

-William P. Rogers

-Conversation with Meany

-Golf

-Trade

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-Frank E. Fitzsimmons

-Executive Council meeting

-Foreign policy briefing

-Favorable response

-The President

-Scheduling

-Support for the President

Strikes

-The President’s conversation with Albert E. Sindlinger

-Avoidance of major strike

-Bargaining situations

-General Electric [GE]

-Rubber [?]

-Teamsters

-Construction

-Auto workers

-Labor-Management Advisory Committee

-Phase III

-Meetings

-Statement on wages

-Call for moderation

-GE

-Meeting with Reginald H. Jones

-Willie J. Usery’s meeting with the union

-Negotiations

-Auto

-Compared to GE

-Trucking

-Fitzsimmons

-Chicago local

-Phase II

James R. (“Jimmy”) Hoffa’s case

-Fitzsimmons

-News stories

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-Union activity

-Restrictions

-Violations

-Problem for Fitzsimmons

-Assertiveness

-Ehrlichman’s help

-The President’s recollection of order

-Fitzsimmons

-Brennan

-Charles W. Colson

-Fitzsimmons

-Cooperation with the administration

-Hoffa’s criticism

-Effect on Fitzsimmon’s relationship with the administration

-Chicago local

-Meeting with the President

-Cooperation

Strikes

-Sindlinger’s comments

-Collective bargaining

-Avoidance

-Labor-Management Advisory Committee

-Commission on Industrial Peace

-Commission on Industrial Peace

-Membership

-James D. Hodgson

-Arthur Goldberg

-Letter to the President

-Vietnam

-Court appointment

-Labor-Management Advisory Committee

-Core

-Transportation

-Farm labor

-Cesar Chavez

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-Fitzsimmons

-Business with growers

Economic advisers

-Future meeting

-News summaries

-Policy premises

-Steadfastness

-Successes

-Stein

-Shultz

-COLC

-Wage and Price Commission

-Predictions

-Phase II

-Economic record

-Uncertainty

-Strengths

-Associations with groups

-Speeches [?]

-Confidence

-Stock Market

-Compared to rest of US

Business Council

-Support for the President

-1972 election

-Harry S. Dent

-Address to Council

-Foreign policy

-Ehrlichman

-Stein, Ash, Shultz

-Announcement of Phase III

-Wage & price controls

-Business leaders meeting with Shultz [?]

-Access to the President

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-David Packard [?]

-Dent’s role

-International trade

-Dinner speeches

-Phase III

-Board of Directors

The Administration’s economic record

-Economic advisers

-International trade

-Heath

-Great Britain

-Japan

-trade bill

-Burke-Hartke Bill

-Theory compared to action

-Balance of payments

-Heath’s opinion

-Japan

-Inflation

-US Dollar

-West Germany

-Controls

-Japan

-Deputy Secretary

-Multinational corporations

-Pittsburgh company

-Turmoil

-Package

-Burns’s view

-Meeting

-Rogers

-US policy

-Steadfastness

-Statistics

-Trade and prices

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-Importance

-Prices

-Rises

-Public relations

-Phase II

-Trade

-Trade

-Psychology

-Legislation

-Strength

-Presentation

-Flooding the markets [Anti-Dumping ?]

-Safeguards

-Projectionism

-Public relations

-Psychology

-Change perceptions

-Compared to full employment budget concept

-Balance of payments

-Facet of international business

-Stein

-Deficit

-US Dollar

-“Benign neglect”

-Full employment budget compared to Actual Budget

-Stein’s view

-Brookings Institution

-President’s view

-Inflation

-Compared to 1968

-Release of figures

-Timing

-Trade balance

-Turbulence in markets

-Food prices

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The President’s schedule

The President’s economic advisers

-Teamwork

-Qualifications

-Ash

-Compared to Caspar W. (“Cap”) Weinberger

-International business background

-Shultz

-Stein

-Candor

-Advice for the President

-Meetings with the President

-Ehrlichman

-Frequency

-Congressional relations

-William Proxmire

Trade

-Speeches by the President and Shultz

-International Monetary Fund [IMF] meeting

-Strategy

-Implementation

-Connection between trade and monetary situation

-Policy continuity

-Speech

-Anti-Dumping

-Politics

-Free trade

Ash

-Hours of work

-Private sector

The President’s schedule

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Shultz, Stein, Ash and Ehrlichman left at 6:09 pm.